The gold market,
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The week in one line

Gold opened the week near $4,010 — not far off nine-month lows — and firmed steadily to close Monday around $4,083, up roughly 1.8% on the week and reclaiming the $4,090 line intraday. Silver did even more, climbing about 2.3% on Monday alone to near $59.40. After a punishing few weeks, the whole precious-metals complex finally caught a bid together.

What turned it

The catalyst came over the weekend: the United States and Iran paused hostilities, each holding fire as long as the other did. Markets read it as a step toward de-escalation — and Brent crude fell more than 4% from two-month highs. Cheaper oil eases the inflation picture, so traders trimmed their bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Lower rate expectations pulled the dollar down, and a softer dollar is a direct tailwind for gold.

Tellingly, it was not gold alone. Silver, platinum and palladium all rallied hard on the same day. When the entire metals complex moves together like that, it usually signals a broad shift in the macro backdrop — here, the two forces feeding the recent rate-hike story (firm oil and a strong dollar) reversing at once.

Silver stole the show — and it ties to this week’s lesson

Silver outran gold, which nudged the gold-to-silver ratio down to about 68.9 from roughly 69.7 on Friday. That is still near the top of its historical range — exactly the setup our new Lesson 4 describes, where a high ratio has long been read as silver looking cheap relative to gold. It is also the lesson’s other point in action: silver follows gold, but louder — rising faster on the way up (and, as the past weeks showed, falling harder on the way down).

The big test this week

Everything now points to the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meets on 28–29 July — it is on your Events page. A decision to hold, or a softer tone, would ease the pressure on real yields and give this bounce room to run. A hawkish surprise — signalling higher-for-longer — could bring the selling back. As our lessons keep stressing, gold moves on the surprise versus what the market already expects, so watch the tone as much as the number.

But keep perspective

One good week does not undo the damage. Gold still trades roughly 27% below its 29 January record of $5,594.82. Analysts frame this as a countertrend rebound inside a larger correction — encouraging, but not a confirmed bottom until price can hold higher levels through a Fed decision. The odds improved this week; the question is not settled.

For a UAE buyer

The takeaway is the same one our lessons return to: this market is driven by the Fed and the dollar. This week both turned gold-friendly, and because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, that fed straight into local prices. For steady accumulators, weeks like this are a reminder to watch rate expectations into the Fed meeting — not to chase a single green week. As always, ask for the per-gram rate and the making charge (ujrah) separately, and keep the receipt.

The week in one line

Gold started the week sliding toward $4,000 — touching an eight-month low near $3,940 on Tuesday — then reversed hard to close near $4,170, up about 2% on the week. It was gold’s first weekly gain in five weeks, and it came from a shift in the one thing that has driven this market all year: expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.

What turned it

Two events midweek did the work. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the ECB’s Sintra forum and struck a softer note than markets feared — saying inflation risks had eased, while declining to commit to a rate path. That alone took some steam out of the hawkish story. Then on Thursday, the June jobs report landed a day early and badly missed: just 57,000 jobs versus about 110,000 expected, with the prior month revised sharply lower.

The reaction was textbook. A weaker labour market means less pressure on the Fed to raise rates, so traders cut their bets on a September hike — the odds fell from around 66% to roughly 50%. Lower rate expectations pulled the dollar down to its largest weekly drop since April, and a softer dollar is a direct tailwind for gold.

The quiet support underneath

Beneath the week’s headlines, central banks kept buying. The World Gold Council reported official reserves rose a net 41 tonnes in May, led by Poland (18t) and China (10t). This is slow, structural demand that follows reserve policy, not the daily price — and it is a big reason dips keep finding buyers.

But keep perspective

One good week does not undo the damage. Gold still just closed its worst quarter in 13 years and trades roughly 22% below its January peak. Analysts describe this as a countertrend rebound inside a larger correction — gold would need to hold above roughly $4,165 and then clear higher resistance before a durable bottom is confirmed. The bounce improved the odds; it did not settle the question.

What to watch next week

The calendar is lighter, but Wednesday 8 July brings the June FOMC meeting minutes — already on your Events page, at 10pm Abu Dhabi time. They will show how firmly Fed officials backed the hawkish path that rattled markets in June. If the minutes read softer than that surprise, this rebound gets more room; if they read hawkish, the pressure can return.

For a UAE buyer

The takeaway is the same one our lessons keep returning to: this market is driven by the Fed and the dollar. This week both turned gold-friendly, and because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, that fed straight into local prices. For steady accumulators, weeks like this are a reminder to watch rate expectations — not to chase a single green week.

What happened

The US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June — the fewest in four months and roughly half the 110,000 economists expected. To make it worse, May’s figure was revised down sharply to 129,000 from the 172,000 first reported. Gold, which had been grinding to an eight-month low near $3,940 only days earlier, rebounded more than 2% to trade back above $4,100.

Why a weak jobs report lifts gold

It comes back to interest rates. A strong labour market pushes the Federal Reserve toward higher rates, which is a headwind for gold. A weak one does the opposite: it removes the pressure to hike, and even revives talk of cuts. After this report, the market-implied odds of a September rate hike fell from about 67% to under 50%. Lower rate expectations weakened the dollar — the Dollar Index dropped to a two-week low — and a softer dollar is a direct tailwind for gold.

The supporting cast

Two other things helped. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking in Sintra this week, noted that inflation expectations are easing — while still reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to price stability. And oil prices fell further as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovered and US–Iran talks progressed, calming inflation fears. Both nudged the same way: less pressure for higher rates.

But keep it in perspective

This is a strong bounce, not yet a confirmed turn. Gold has just come through one of its weakest quarters in over 13 years, and it remains well below its January peak. Analysts note the metal needs to hold above roughly $4,100–$4,200 before many traders accept that a durable bottom is in. One good day, driven by one data point, does not erase a months-long downtrend — it just improves the odds.

What it means for a UAE buyer

Two takeaways. First, this is exactly the mechanism from our lessons playing out in real time: a soft jobs number → lower rate bets → weaker dollar → firmer gold. Second, because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, that softer dollar fed straight into AED prices. For someone accumulating steadily rather than trading, days like this are a reminder that the trend is set by the Fed and the dollar — so watch rate expectations, not the daily candle.

The month in one line

Gold spent June grinding lower — not crashing, but steadily giving ground — as a stronger US economy and a more hawkish Federal Reserve rebuilt the case for higher-for-longer interest rates. It closed the month near $4,045, roughly 6% below where it began, yet still holding the psychologically vital $4,000 line.

What drove the move

Three forces did most of the damage, and one quietly pushed back.

1. The Iran ceasefire drained the fear premium. The US–Iran confrontation that had lifted oil and gold earlier in the year cooled toward a ceasefire. As the safe-haven bid faded, so did part of gold’s price — a textbook example of a crisis premium unwinding when the news gets better.

2. A blowout jobs report. On 5 June the US reported 172,000 new jobs for May — roughly double the ~80,000 economists expected. A strong labour market gives the Fed no reason to cut rates, and higher-for-longer rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays nothing.

3. A more hawkish Fed under a new chair. The 16–17 June FOMC meeting was Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed Chair. With inflation still elevated (May CPI ran at 4.2% year-on-year), markets pushed rate-cut hopes further out — and lifted the odds of a hike before year-end. A firmer rate path strengthened the dollar, and a stronger dollar is a direct headwind for gold.

The quiet support: central banks. Against all of that, official buyers kept accumulating. Central banks added to reserves through the quarter — China extended its buying streak and Poland kept building toward its target. This is price-insensitive, structural demand, and it is a big reason gold corrected rather than collapsed.

The bigger picture

Step back and June looks less alarming. Gold is down about 25% from its January 2026 all-time high near $5,589 — the deepest pullback of this cycle — but it is still far above where it traded a year ago. This has the shape of a correction inside an intact bull market, not the end of one. Notably, every major bank’s year-end target still sits well above today’s price.

What it means for a UAE buyer

Two practical takeaways. First, the dirham is pegged to the dollar, so June’s stronger dollar showed up directly in AED prices — per-gram rates eased alongside the international spot. Second, a correction is where disciplined buyers do their best work: every down month lowers the average cost of a steady accumulation plan. If you buy gold to hold, months like June are opportunities to add, not reasons to panic.

The one thing to watch next: the Fed. Real interest rates remain gold’s single biggest driver, so the direction of rate expectations — not the daily headline — will decide whether $4,000 becomes a floor or a doorway.

What the pullback gives a Dubai buyer

The drop has handed buyers a far easier entry than the panic-highs of January. 24K is back near AED 476/g and an ounce near AED 14,800 — roughly a quarter below the peak. If you buy jewellery, two numbers move together: the per-gram gold rate and the making charge. On 24K bars and coins there is little or no making charge; on 22K jewellery the gram rate is lower but craftsmanship is added on top, so compare the all-in price, not just the headline rate.

One discipline beats trying to call the exact bottom: buy a fixed dirham amount on a fixed schedule. When the price dips you get more grams; when it runs you get fewer. Over a full cycle that tends to beat waiting for a number that may never print.

The levels that matter

The line in the sand is $4,000. Just above it sits the 200-day average near $4,100 — the trend line that supported the entire bull market, now broken and acting as resistance overhead. Below, chart-watchers flag $3,800–$3,820 as the next support. Reclaiming $4,000 cleanly would steady the picture; losing $3,800 would open more downside.

In dirham terms those levels translate roughly to about AED 472/g at $4,000 and near AED 449/g at $3,800 — though the exact figure shifts with the dollar and local premiums.

The calendar that could move it

Gold’s next move is less about the metal and more about the US dollar and interest-rate expectations — and those are set on a few scheduled dates. The pattern is simple: hot data (strong jobs, sticky inflation) pushes rate-hike odds and the dollar up, a headwind for gold; soft data does the opposite.

The near-term sequence: the jobs report on 2 July, CPI inflation on 14 July, the Fed’s rate decision on 29 July, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, on 30 July. The 16 September and 9 December Fed meetings — each with fresh projections — are the bigger inflection points later in the year.

See the full live event calendar →

Bottom line for buyers

Accumulate steadily in dirhams, keep an eye on the calendar above, and don’t try to nail the bottom. The forces that drove gold here — central-bank buying, scarce supply, a shrinking dollar share of reserves — haven’t changed; only the fear premium has come out. A cheaper entry with the structure intact is, for a patient buyer, an opportunity rather than a warning.

1 · Spot is the starting line

The spot price is the global wholesale price for one troy ounce of pure (24K) gold, set in the international market and moving by the second. It is the number our live rate and every headline quote refers to. A troy ounce is about 31.1 grams, so the per-gram spot is simply the ounce price divided by 31.1. Everything you see in a shop is built on top of this one figure — but it is the floor, not the final price.

2 · Purity scales the metal value

The first adjustment is karat. Spot is for pure gold, so a piece that is not 24K is worth proportionally less metal. The gold value of an item is the per-gram spot times its purity: 22K is 91.6%, 21K is 87.5%, 18K is 75%. So a 10g 21K piece holds the metal value of roughly 8.75g of pure gold — before anything else is added.

3 · The making charge (ujrah)

For jewellery, the workshop’s craftsmanship is charged on top of the metal — the making charge, or ujrah. It is quoted either per gram or as a percentage, and it climbs with how intricate or branded the piece is. This is the single biggest reason two 22K pieces of the same weight can carry very different tags. Always ask for the per-gram gold rate and the making charge separately, so you can see exactly what you are paying for.

4 · The premium (bars & coins)

Even plain investment bars and coins trade a little above their pure-metal value — a small premium covering refining, minting and the dealer’s margin. The rule of thumb: the smaller the unit, the higher the premium per gram. A 1g coin carries a much larger percentage premium than a 100g bar, which is why buyers holding for value tend to prefer larger bars.

5 · When you sell — the buy-back

Here is the part many people miss. Buy-back is weight × purity at the day’s spot. You generally do not get the making charge or the premium back — that money paid for craftsmanship and handling, not metal. The gap between what you paid and what you are offered back is the spread, and it is exactly why gold rewards long holding, not quick flipping. Keep the receipt, and a clear hallmark or stamp makes buy-back faster and cleaner.

1 · Two metals, one family

Gold and silver are both precious metals, and both react to the same big forces: the US dollar, interest rates, inflation, and demand for a safe haven when markets get nervous. That shared DNA is why, most of the time, when gold rises silver rises too, and when gold falls silver follows. But silver has a second life that gold does not — it is also an industrial metal, used in electronics, solar panels and medicine. So silver listens to the health of the economy as well as to the mood of investors.

2 · The gold-to-silver ratio

The simplest way to compare them is the ratio: how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. You get it by dividing the gold price by the silver price. If gold is $4,000 and silver is $50, the ratio is 80 — one ounce of gold equals about 80 ounces of silver. A high ratio means silver is cheap relative to gold; a low ratio means silver is expensive relative to gold.

3 · Why silver swings harder

Silver is the smaller, faster cousin. Its market is a fraction of the size of gold’s, so the same amount of money moving in or out pushes the price much further. Add its industrial demand on top, and silver becomes more volatile in both directions. A useful rule of thumb: silver often lags at the start of a gold rally, then catches up sharply — it follows gold, but louder. That also means it can fall harder when the mood turns.

4 · How to read the ratio

Historically the ratio has swung through wide extremes. When it climbs unusually high, some long-term buyers see silver as looking cheap versus gold; when it drops low, gold looks the relatively better value. Treat this as context, not a signal — the ratio can stay stretched for years, and it never tells you when anything will change. It is a lens for understanding the pair, not a timing tool.

5 · What it means for a buyer in the UAE

Silver’s low price per gram makes it easy to start with, but the trade-offs are real: making charges are proportionally heavier on cheap metal, buy-back spreads are wider, and the same value takes up far more space to store. For most people, gold stays the core store of value, and silver is a smaller, more energetic addition — not a replacement. As always, ask for the per-gram rate and the making charge (ujrah) separately, and keep the receipt.

1 · The building block — one candle

Each candle packs four prices into one shape: the open, the close, and the high and low it reached. The thick part is the body (open to close); the thin lines are the wicks. A long body means a strong move; a long wick means price was pushed there but rejected. A green candle closes higher than it opened; a red one closes lower.

2 · The W — double bottom (a turn up)

Price falls to a low, bounces to a middle peak, then falls again to about the same low — but cannot break lower. Twice it found a floor and held: sellers are running out of power. The shape is only treated as confirmed once price closes back above the middle level, called the neckline.

3 · The M — double top (a turn down)

The exact mirror. Price rises to a high, dips to a middle valley, rises again to about the same high — but cannot push higher. Buyers are exhausted. It is confirmed once price closes back below the neckline, and usually points to a fall.

4 · An easy way to remember

W is a smile — it turns up, bullish. M is a frown — it turns down, bearish.

5 · What makes the pattern reliable

Common mistake

Beware the false breakout. These shapes are probabilities, not guarantees — sometimes the pattern forms but the break fails and price reverses. Wait for a clear close beyond the neckline, and let heavier trading volume on the break add confidence.

The practical takeaway

You do not trade the shape itself — you wait for the neckline break to confirm it. A W hints the fall may be ending; an M hints the rise may be tiring. Treat each as a clue to watch, never a promise.

1 · What the Fed actually does

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its main job is to keep prices stable (low inflation) and employment healthy. Its most powerful tool is the interest rate it sets — the rate that ripples out into borrowing costs, savings returns, and the value of the dollar. When the Fed moves, the whole financial world adjusts, and gold is no exception.

2 · Why gold listens to the Fed

Recall from Lesson 1 that gold pays no interest. So gold competes with anything that does — above all, US government bonds, whose yield follows the Fed’s rate. When the Fed raises rates, those bonds pay more, and holding non-yielding gold costs you that forgone return. Gold tends to fall. When the Fed cuts, that cost shrinks and gold tends to rise. This is the single most important relationship in the gold market.

3 · It is expectations, not just the decision

Here is the subtlety that catches beginners. Gold usually moves before the Fed actually acts, because markets price in what they expect. By the time a rate decision is announced, the move has often already happened. What moves gold on the day is the surprise — the gap between what the Fed does (or signals) and what the market expected. A hike that everyone expected can pass quietly; a hint of cuts that no one expected can send gold flying.

4 · The chair’s tone matters

The Fed chair’s words can move gold as much as the decision itself. A “hawkish” tone (focused on fighting inflation, comfortable with high rates) is a headwind for gold. A “dovish” tone (worried about growth, open to cuts) is a tailwind. This is why every speech and press conference is studied so closely — the market is hunting for the direction of the next move.

5 · Don’t forget real rates

Tie it back to Lesson 1: what matters most is the real rate — the Fed’s rate minus inflation. The Fed can hold rates steady, but if inflation climbs, the real rate falls and gold can still rise. And it can hold steady while inflation cools, lifting the real rate and weighing on gold. Always read the Fed’s rate together with inflation, never alone.

Common mistakes

Waiting for the rate decision to “trade the news” — by then the move is usually done. Ignoring the tone of the chair’s remarks, which often matter more than the number. And watching the Fed’s rate without watching inflation, which misses the real-rate story entirely.

The practical takeaway

You do not need to predict the Fed. You need to know which way the wind is blowing: is the Fed leaning toward higher rates (headwind for gold) or lower (tailwind)? Follow the direction of rate expectations — through the calendar of Fed meetings and jobs and inflation data — and you will understand most of what gold does, without ever forecasting a single number.

1 · The simple mechanism — gold is priced in dollars

Gold has a single global price, quoted in US dollars. So when the dollar strengthens against other currencies, that same ounce suddenly costs more in euros, yen or rupees — and demand from the rest of the world cools, easing the price. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for everyone outside the US, demand picks up, and the price firms. Part of gold’s daily move is therefore just the dollar’s own value changing, before anything “real” about gold has shifted at all.

2 · The deeper reason — two safe havens competing

In times of fear or uncertainty, money looks for safety, and the two classic havens are the US dollar (and US government bonds) and gold. They compete for the same nervous money. When confidence in the dollar is high — a strong economy, high US interest rates — money prefers the dollar, because it is safe and pays a yield. When confidence in the dollar wobbles — rising debt, inflation, falling rates — money shifts toward gold, which no government can print. The dollar and gold are often two sides of the very same decision.

3 · Interest rates tie it together

This connects to Lesson 1. Higher US interest rates usually strengthen the dollar (money flows in chasing yield) and at the same time hurt gold (the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays nothing). So rates frequently push both in the “dollar up, gold down” direction at once. That shared driver is a big reason the inverse relationship looks so dependable.

4 · Why a UAE buyer should care especially

The dirham is pegged to the US dollar. So when the dollar strengthens, the dirham strengthens with it, and gold priced in AED moves much like gold priced in USD. You cannot sidestep the dollar effect simply by buying in dirhams. The encouraging flip side: when the dollar weakens and gold rises, your AED gold rises too.

5 · When the relationship breaks

It is a tendency, not a guarantee. Sometimes gold and the dollar rise together — usually in a deep crisis, when frightened money floods into every safe haven at once. It can also break when central-bank buying is so heavy that it simply overwhelms the dollar effect. Knowing the link can snap keeps you from leaning on it too hard.

Common mistakes

Treating the inverse link as ironclad every single day — it is a tendency over weeks and months, noisy day to day. Forgetting the dirham peg and assuming AED shields you from dollar moves. And watching gold without ever glancing at the dollar — the US Dollar Index (DXY) is the simplest gauge of whether the dollar is strong or weak lately.

The practical takeaway

Keep one eye on the dollar. A strengthening dollar is a headwind for gold; a weakening one is a tailwind. Combine that single observation with the real-rate and central-bank dials from Lesson 1, and you have a simple, powerful read on gold’s backdrop — without forecasting a thing.

1 · Real interest rates — the opportunity cost

This is the single most important force, and the one beginners miss. Gold pays you nothing — no interest, no dividend. So when safe assets like US government bonds pay a high return, holding gold means giving up that yield. That makes gold less attractive, and its price tends to fall. When rates are low or falling, the cost of holding gold shrinks, and it becomes more appealing.

The crucial nuance: what matters is the real interest rate — the interest rate minus inflation. High interest with even higher inflation can still be good for gold, because the real return on cash is negative. This is why “gold always rises with inflation” is a myth: if interest rates rise faster than inflation, gold can fall even while prices climb. In 2022–23, the US Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively and real rates jumped — and gold struggled for stretches despite high inflation.

2 · The US dollar — the measuring stick

Gold is priced worldwide in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for buyers in every other currency, so global demand softens and the price often falls. When the dollar weakens, gold tends to rise. The relationship is inverse, though never perfectly so.

For a UAE buyer this is direct: the dirham is pegged to the dollar, so when the dollar climbs, the dirham climbs with it — and a 13-month-high dollar is a real headwind for gold priced in AED.

3 · Inflation and fear — the store-of-value bid

Gold’s oldest job is holding value when paper money loses it. In times of high or uncertain inflation, people buy gold to protect their purchasing power. But the link is not mechanical: gold reacts more to expected inflation and to fear and uncertainty than to any single monthly inflation report. A hot CPI print only moves gold if it changes what people expect the Fed to do next.

4 · Central banks — the silent giant

Central banks hold gold as reserves, and since 2022 they have been buying at a historic pace to reduce their dependence on the dollar. This demand is largely price-insensitive: a central bank diversifying its reserves buys whether gold is $2,000 or $4,000. That steady, structural buying puts a floor under the market that short-term traders often underestimate.

5 · Safe-haven demand — the crisis premium

Wars, banking scares and geopolitical shocks send money rushing into gold, and the price can spike quickly. But this “fear premium” is temporary: it inflates the price fast and can deflate just as fast when the crisis cools. Much of a sharp rally can simply be fear that later unwinds — which is why gold sometimes falls hard precisely when the news gets better.

6 · Supply and physical demand — the slow anchor

Mine supply grows slowly and rarely shocks the market. Physical demand — jewellery in India, China and the Gulf, plus bars, coins and ETFs — sets the long-run backdrop. It moves the price less on any given day, but it is the anchor beneath everything else.

Putting it together

On any given day these forces compete. A hope of rate cuts can lift gold even as a strong dollar drags on it. The skill is not predicting the future — it is recognising which force is dominant right now. “Gold fell this week because the dollar hit a 13-month high and rate-hike odds rose” is a complete explanation: the monetary forces simply overpowered the structural bid.

Common mistakes

Watching only the inflation headline and expecting gold to move with it one-for-one. Ignoring the dollar entirely. Believing gold “must” rise in inflation regardless of real rates. And reacting to a single day’s move instead of the dominant trend — the surest way to buy tops and sell bottoms.

The practical takeaway

You do not need to forecast. Track three dials: the direction of real interest rates (which follows the Fed), the US dollar, and central-bank buying. When the first two turn friendly and the third stays strong, the backdrop favours gold. Accumulate steadily, and let the structural bid work for you rather than trying to outguess the daily noise.

1 · The candle

Each “candle” sums up four prices for a slice of time: where price opened, where it closed, and the highest and lowest points it touched (the thin lines, called wicks). Closed higher than it opened → usually green; lower → red. A row of candles is simply price over time.

2 · Floor and ceiling (support & resistance)

Price often pauses at levels where buyers or sellers keep stepping in. A ceiling (resistance) is a level price keeps failing to break above; a floor (support) is one it keeps bouncing up from. Not magic — memory: many people remember those prices and act around them.

3 · Trend

An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows; a downtrend is lower highs and lower lows. When neither holds, price moves sideways. The trend matters far more than any single candle.

4 · Timeframes

The same gold can look like it’s crashing on a 5-minute chart and rising on a yearly one. Short timeframes are noisy; long ones show the real direction. Buying gold to hold? The daily and weekly picture matters much more than the minute chart.

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Karat measures how much of the metal is pure gold. 24K is about 99.9% pure; lower numbers add other metals for strength. Purer gold is softer, more deeply yellow, and pricier per gram.

Rule of thumb: buying to store value → 24K bars or coins (lowest premium, best buy-back). Buying to wear → 22K or 21K balances colour and durability. Always ask the per-gram rate and the making charge (ujrah) separately, and keep the receipt — buy-back is weight × purity.